So here we are. A little over 7 months ago IU’s much ballyhooed season combining Eric Gordon and DJ White came to an abrupt and disappointing end. Then the bad news hit. Everyone but Kyle Taber left the ship. A couple took the lifeboats. A couple were forced to walk the plank. Somewhere in the middle there Tom Crean was hired and started the rebuilding process, partially by forcing those guys to walk the plank. He brought in some new players, kept some that were already coming in, and started working hard on lowering expectations and laying out something of a roadmap for IU fans. Along the way he put together a top 5 class for 2009, a class that might become the best in the country still. All while IU fans cower in fear of the big, bad NCAA. With that being the case, let’s preview.
Last year’s record: 25-8, lost in first round of Big Ten tournament, lost in first round of NCAA tournament.
Key Losses: Kelvin Sampson, DJ White, Eric Gordon, Armon Bassett, Jordan Crawford, Lance Stemler, DeAndre Thomas, Jamarcus Ellis, and a few other guys who didn’t contribute that much.
Key Additions: Tom Crean, Nick Williams, Verdell Jones III, Devan Dumes, Tom Pritchard, Matt Roth, Malik Story, Tijan Jobe
1. Significant developments in the offseason
Wow, where to begin. Kelvin Sampson is out, Tom Crean is in. Eric Gordon and DJ White left for the NBA. Lance Stemler and Mike White graduated. Armon Bassett and Jamarcus Ellis were kicked off the team, a decision that Tom Crean supported. Eli Holman transferred to Detroit-Mercy where Ray McCallum was hired. DeAndre Thomas was shown the door, as was Brandon McGee. And Jordan Crawford decided he didn’t want to hang around for this, and turned out the proverbial lights on the way to Xavier.
Somewhere in the middle, the recruiting class was jumbled around. Devin Ebanks decided he didn’t want to play for Crean and went to West Virginia. Terrell Holloway agreed and went to Xavier. Matt Roth and Tom Prtichard decided to stick it out and come to IU. Crean nabbed junior college transfers Devan Dumes and Tijan Jobe. Nick Williams sought and obtained a release of his NLI from Marquette and followed Crean to Indiana. IU fought off Minnesota for the services of Verdell Jones. Jeremiah Rivers transferred from Georgetown and will sit out a year. And mysterious California recruit Malik Story signed up. Oh yeah, and a bunch of walk-ons were added.
2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?
Contrary to what you might be reading (even here), this is still Indiana. There’s a lot of work to do before the luster is returned to the program, but it’s still a diamond. Which means a couple of things. There will always be a lot of people there. There will always be a significant home court advantage. There will be oodles of support even for a team that some people are suggesting could go winless in the Big Ten.
The other biggest strength is that this team, as presently composed, plays to the strengths of the coach involved. When IU had a small team under Mike Davis, his NBA-esque isolation/spacing offense really suffered because athletically the team matched up poorly, not to mention the perils of running a man-to-man defense when you have matchup issues. Crean will be more likely to get the maximum out of these players than Davis or even Sampson would have.
3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?
Size, experience, and depth. IU has none of any of those. Walk-ons are being brought in just to have enough players to scrimmage. There are two guys bigger than 6’6” with scholarships, one of whom is an ex-walk-on who is recovering from knee surgery. Kyle Taber and Devan Dumes (who went to Eastern Michigan for a year) are the only players with any significant Division I basketball experience. And the drop-off from the starters to about the 9th man is a chasm.
Let me throw in one more weakness, or maybe more like a threat or challenge: the schedule. Last year, IU was brutalized (wrongly so) for playing an extremely weak schedule. This year, IU is playing a significantly more difficult schedule (based on the swing of about 7 games, my point last year). After playing in a weak tournament, a down opponent in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and IU’s signature true non-conference road game being a down Southern Illinois Team, not to mention Kentucky’s struggles, things are different this year. IU will go to Maui, and its much stronger field. IU will play true road games against Wake Forest and an improved Kentucky team. And IU will take on Gonzaga at Lucas Oil Stadium. And IU only plays Michigan and Northwestern once, both of whom are expected to be right there with the Hoosiers near the bottom of the conference.
4. What are the goals for this team?
I’m not going to give you some “I just hope we see some hustle and heart” spiel. This team is going to lose a lot of game. This team is not going to the tournament. This team is probably not going to the CBI even. This team might lose 20 games. So you also can’t use a lot of the traditional measures of what a good team is. And I’m not going to add to the continuing little brotherfication of IU by saying “I just hope we beat Illinois twice.”
So here’s what I ask: don’t get blown out too much. IU is going to get waxed early in the season. At Maui, at Wake, at Kentucky, against Gonazaga, IU will probably lost badly. And IU is going to lose a few games to some of the cupcake non-conference teams. But by the middle or end of the Big Ten season, IU should be at least putting up a fight at home. Against some of these midlevel Big Ten teams, or even some of the bigger ones, IU should not be getting blown out. Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan should not be rolling into Assembly Hall and laying the wood to the Hoosiers, even this iteration of the Hoosiers. And try and knock off a big team or two or even make a little run in the Big Ten Tourney so people can all go crazy about next year.
5. Will Tom Crean be on the Hot Seat?
That’s an excellent question. We know that big-time, basketball-crazed fan bases can put a coach on a hot seat long before you might expect. There were whispers about Billy Gillispie in his first year at Kentucky. If he has another disappointing year, those whispers might get pretty loud. On the other hand, some fan bases, although not as obsessed with their team, seem to give their coaches a lot of leinency. I find it somewhat amazing that Bruce Weber isn’t on the hot seat considering the precipitous fall that team has suffered and the fact that his rebuilding project is probably two years away. Oh yeah, and his players aren’t exactly model citizens either.
Tom Crean will be on the hot seat. Rightly or wrongly, he will be. I think the fact that Bill Lynch is on the hot seat now says a lot. But we know this team is going to lose a lot of games. We know this team will be uncompetitive in some. And I’m willing to bet this team will give up 100 points and fail to score 60 (hopefully not in the same game). It’s one thing to say after a very disappointing season with a very talented group and in the middle of the total dismantling of that group that all you want is a bunch of guys who go to class, keep their noses clean, and are proud to wear the jersey. It’s a whole ‘nother thing to say that when those guys are losing 20 games. The same sort of whispers will arise around Crean that came up around Gillispie. Good thing Crean built lots of political capital, he’s going to spend a bit of it this year.
Predictions: 11-20 (5-13 Big Ten), first round loss in the Big Ten Tournament
ItH follows up with L. Jon Wertheim
I toyed with the idea of sussing more quotes out of L. Jon Wertheim’s article as a follow up to what I wrote yesterday, but then the boys at Inside the Hall tracked down the man himself and asked him a few questions. There’s even more great information in the Q&A. I don’t want to steal too much thunder, but one question and answer stood out as confirming what a lot of people have expected about Sampson’s hiring:
I think Greenspan told us all we need to know without saying much at all.